2009 fantasy football draft rankings: Running backs

in Sports by griffn — August 24, 2009 at 10:23 am | 6 comments

It’s the most wonderful time of the year: NFL preseason.  Hopes are high in locker rooms across the country, and church attendance has dropped off sharply.  Fantasy football owners are scouring the globe for every piece of NFL news, thinking they’ve got the secret formula for a championship year.  You don’t.  I do.  Follow these rankings carefully, and you win your league.

Keep in mind two things.  First, the round projections here are based on a 10-team league.  For example, if you’re in a 12-team or 14-team league, Steven Jackson isn’t so much a second round pick as he is a low first rounder.  Second, if you’re in a 10-team league that has two RB slots or more, make sure you grab at least three of these guys.  It might cost you three of your first six picks, but trust me, do it.  The drop-off is steep from the top 25 starters in the league to the committees and backups who will be riding your league’s waiver wire all year.

Let’s get to it.  Quarterbacks and wide receivers to come later this week.

1. Michael Turner – Atlanta Falcons
Turner was a TD or two away from being the top running back in fantasy football last year.  With Falcons QB Matt Ryan progressing off a stellar rookie season, Turner should get even more room to run this year.  If you’re lucky enough to get the #1 pick in your league, this is a no-brainer.  Don’t blow it.

2. Matt Forte – Chicago Bears
Forte is the real deal.  He was a top five fantasy back his rookie year, racking up 1,700 total yards and 12 TDs, including an impressive 63 receptions.  The Bears upgrading from Kyle Orton to Jay Cutler should mean fewer eight-man fronts, more receiving yards, and an even bigger year for Forte.  After Turner, Forte is the safest bet of any running back this year.

3. DeAngelo Williams – Carolina Panthers
The second half of 2008, Williams went absolutely out of his mind, scoring 15 TDs in eight games and taking the crown as the top running back in fantasy football.  A lot of people are devaluing Williams, dropping him to the bottom of the first round, based on the prospect of a healthy Jonathan Stewart pushing him for playing time.  Thing is, Stewart isn’t really healthy (sore Achilles), and Williams is the better back.  Also, Williams did what he did with less than 300 touches (Michael Turner got 383 touches and still finished behind Williams).  It won’t be hard to duplicate that, even with Stewart taking away carries.  I think the Panthers stick with Williams and he’s knocking on the door of 20 TDs again.

4. Adrian Peterson – Minnesota Vikings
Peterson is the consensus number one pick of draft rooms everywhere, but I’m not convinced.  He’s got all the tools, but how do you use the top pick on a guy who only scored 10 TDs last year?  And I’m not convinced that Brett Favre coming to Minnesota is an improvement for that offense.  The number of INTs he’s going to throw will cut into Peterson’s scoring opportunities.  The other thing that worries me about Peterson is that he was injured almost half of his college career.  While that hasn’t carried over to the NFL yet, it’s probably only a matter of time.  If it costs you the top pick in the draft to get Peterson (and it probably will in 95% of drafts this year), I would pass.

5. LaDainian Tomlinson – San Diego Chargers
Like DeAngelo Williams, Tomlinson is another guy who is falling to the bottom of the first round– I’ve even seen him go into the second.  That’s insane.  I know he’s old, I know he was banged up a lot last year.  But this is a guy who is a year removed from scoring 18 TDs.  And he’s healthy.  And he still has Philip Rivers distributing the ball in what should be a top ten offense.  Even hurt last year, LT put up 1,500 total yards and 12 TDs.  That alone is good enough to warrant a top five pick, and I think he’ll be better this year.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew – Jacksonville Jaguars
Here’s another guy everybody has going with one of the top two or three picks.  And I can see the logic.  With Fred Taylor finally– finally!– out of the way, Jones-Drew is the unquestioned starter in Jacksonville, and should get way more touches.  But here’s the thing.  I’ve been burned by Jones-Drew in the past.  Badly.  Even when Fred Taylor would be injured for a game or two, MoJo’s production was sporadic.  He’s not nearly as likely to give you 125 yards and 2 TDs as he is 40 yards and nothing.  The other thing is, I’m not convinced he’ll get many more touches.  What’s stopping Del Rio from giving Fred Taylor’s old carries to Greg Jones or someone else?  If Jones-Drew is your team’s #1 back, you’re in good shape, but I don’t know if I’d go top first round on him.  The five running backs above him on my board all have at least one monster season under their belt.  We still don’t know what MoJo will do in the driver’s seat.

7. Chris Johnson – Tennessee Titans
Johnson is a phenomenal fantasy back who had a big year even with almost no goal line opportunities.  If LenDale White wasn’t getting all the Titans’ carries inside the ten yard line, Johnson would be a top five back.  As it is, he’s just an extremely solid, consistent guy who you probably shouldn’t let fall out of the first round.

8. Steven Jackson – St. Louis Rams
As a rookie three years ago, Steven Jackson singlehandedly carried my fantasy team to a championship.  He had a mediocre first half, but by the end of the season, he was routinely scoring three and four TDs a game.  Routinely.  Tools-wise, he might be the best RB in the league.  Here’s the problem: he’s always hurt.  Here’s the other problem: the Rams’ offense is terrible.  Still, he’s one of the few backs in the league with a legit shot at the fantasy rushing title.  Using a first round pick on him is a risk.  If he’s still there in the second, grab him.

9. Steve Slaton – Houston Texans
Slaton was a beast at West Virginia, but few people thought a guy his size (5’7”) could carry that into the NFL.  He did.  1,659 total yards, 10 total TDs, and he’ll get better this year.  He’s a potential first-round value that will probably be there for you in the second.

10. Brian Westbrook – Philadelphia Eagles
Westbrook is another high risk, high reward guy.  He’s old.  He also had ankle surgery in June and is spending the entire preseason rehabbing in hopes of being ready for the Eagles opener.  Meanwhile, the Eagles’ second round draft pick LeSean McCoy is waiting in the wings.  There’s a lot of red flags here, but too much upside to let him fall out of the second round.

11. Brandon Jacobs – New York Giants
In 13 games last year, Jacobs scored 15 TDs and rushed for a 5.0 yard per carry average.  When he’s healthy, he’s going to get the Giants’ goal line carries, and he’s going to help your fantasy team tremendously.  The issue here is that he’s been plagued with knee, ankle, and hamstring problems the last two years.  He’s a great value in the second round, but if he’s the first running back you draft, you’ve still got some work to do on your backfield later.

12. Clinton Portis – Washington Redskins
Portis is a super consistent, super solid fantasy back who seems to disappoint every year due to high expectations.  That’s what happens when you score 17 TDs in your rookie year.  Last year, he finished third in the league with 1,700 total yards (behind Turner and Forte) and combined that with a respectable 9 TDs.  This year, he’ll be replaced on third downs by Ladell Betts.  In the long term, that should extend Portis’s career.  In the short term, it means he’ll be getting less touches.  Downgrade accordingly.

13. Frank Gore – San Francisco 49ers
I get why everybody thinks Frank Gore is an elite running back.  He can be.  Problem is, the 49ers offense is terrible, and he doesn’t get enough carries, and he’s never scored more than 9 TDs in a season in his career.  He was also plagued by nagging injuries last year.  I think he’s a low second round value.  But somebody in your league doesn’t and will grab him before you do.  Let them.

14. Thomas Jones – New York Jets
Jones was the third best back in fantasy football last year, with production equal to that of Matt Forte and Adrian Peterson.  So why rank him so low?  My problem with Jones is his long career of consistent mediocrity.  It’s rare for running backs to have career years in their ninth season in the league.  It’s even rarer for them to repeat it in season ten.  Before you draft Jones based on his 1,519 total yards and 15 TDs, keep in mind he scored 2 TDs (playing full-time) the year before that.

15. Ronnie Brown – Miami Dolphins
Brown is a good young running back who can’t seem to pull it together for an entire season or shake the ghost of Ricky Williams.  He had his best fantasy season last year with 1,170 total yards and 10 TDs, but take away his 4 TD game against the Patriots in week three and his numbers look a lot more pedestrian.  If he falls into the third round, and you’ve already grabbed a RB ahead of him, go ahead.  If he’s your #1 back, your team is in trouble.

16. Marion Barber – Dallas Cowboys
A year ago, everyone thought the departure of Julius Jones would mean Marion Barber would turn into a fantasy superstar (kind of like the Maurice Jones-Drew/Fred Taylor situation this year).  That scenario didn’t pan out.  In 2008, Barber was merely serviceable for fantasy teams who probably drafted him in the first round and were counting on him to be their #1 back.  This year, his value is more in line with reality.  He’s a third rounder who will probably go in the third round of your draft.

17. Kevin Smith – Detroit Lions
Smith is a solid running back on a bad team.  But here’s the upside.  The Lions cannot possibly get any worse.  Literally, it’s not possible to win less than zero games.  Therefore, after a surprisingly good rookie season, look for Smith to improve and push for double digit TDs.  He’s a third or fourth round pick who could produce second round value.

18. Ryan Grant – Green Bay Packers
The best thing you can say for Ryan Grant last year was that he stayed healthy and got a lot of touches.  Which he could only parlay into 5 TDs.  He’s a better running back than that, and he’s still in one of the better offenses in the league.  He’ll bounce back.

19. Joseph Addai – Indianapolis Colts
How the mighty have fallen.  Last year, Addai was a consensus first round fantasy pick coming off a 15 TD year.  Yesterday, in a mock draft, I grabbed him as my third running back at the bottom of the fifth round.  The Colts simply aren’t as good an offense as they were a year or two ago, and Addai is taking the brunt of it.  Obviously, if he’s there as low as the fifth round, you take him.  He’ll probably get about half the 15 TDs he scored in 2007.  I don’t see Caldwell giving Addai the number of touches it’ll take for him to get back to form.

20. Pierre Thomas – New Orleans Saints
When he got the opportunity last year, Thomas proved himself to be the solid every down, run-between-the-tackles back that Reggie Smush isn’t.  The Saints will probably stick with Thomas as the starter, but a healthy Bush is going to eat up a lot of playing time.  Thomas could be a solid second or third back for you or he could be waiver wire material by midseason.

21. Marshawn Lynch – Buffalo Bills
The thing you want to keep in mind with Lynch is that he’s suspended the first three games of the season, due to legal troubles and other such tomfoolery.  If you think your team can weather a slow start, you might want to take a shot on him.  He’s a solid #2 fantasy back in an offense that is adding Terrell Owens.

22. LenDale White – Tennessee Titans
After a disappointing first two seasons, White finally broke out last year with 15 TDs–almost all of them coming in short yardage duties.  Don’t expect him to repeat that, but double-digit TDs isn’t out of the question.  Problem is, it’s hard to know which weeks he’ll have 40 yards and 2 TDs and which weeks he’ll just have 40 yards.

23. Willie Parker – Pittsburgh Steelers
After a 16 TD season in 2006, Fast Willie Parker (aka WPB, for some reason) has scored 7 TDs in the two years since.  Part of the problem is that he doesn’t get goal line carries.  Another problem is that the Steelers offensive line has been consistently terrible the last few years.  If you’re worried about Rashard Mendenhall taking away carries, don’t be.  He hasn’t shown much of anything yet, and he’s probably another year away from challenging Parker for serious playing time.  But playing time is the least of WPB’s worries.  He needs to stay healthy, and he has to get more red zone opportunities.  Otherwise, he’s just a fifth or sixth round guy with first or second round tools.

24. Larry Johnson – Kansas City Chiefs
Larry Johnson burned me last year.  I expected him to bounce back from an injury-plagued off year in 2007 to his previous 1,700-yd, 20-TD totals.  Instead, he made it two off years in a row.  The addition of White Cassel should help the Chiefs’ offense, but don’t expect much out of Johnson.  This is a guy with tremendous, unlimited downside.

25. Knowshon Moreno – Denver Broncos
The 2009 rookie running back class is thin.  If any of them has a real shot of making a fantasy impact, it’s Moreno.  Three issues here.  One, Denver is the land of running back by committee, which also happens to be the philosophy of new coach Josh McDaniels (formerly of New England, the running back by committee land of the East).  Second issue, Moreno held out and missed most of training camp– never a good omen for a young back.  Third issue, he sprained his knee last week.  If you draft Moreno, plan on him sitting on your bench doing nothing for a month.  On the other hand, he could turn out to be Terrell Davis.  Late in the draft, you’d rather swing for the fences on an unknown commodity like Moreno than draft say, a Darren McFadden, who is guaranteed to be splitting carries all year in Oakland with veteran back Justin Fargas and losing goal line carries to Michael Bush, or a Reggie Bush, who is guaranteed to date strippers and suck.

Related posts:

1. 2009 fantasy football draft rankings: Quarterbacks
2. 2009 fantasy football rankings: Tight ends
3. 2009 fantasy football rankings: Wide receivers
4. Why you shouldn’t draft a kicker or defense until the last two rounds
5. What’s wrong with Matt Forte?

Tags: fantasy football NFL rankings running backs