2009 fantasy football draft rankings: Quarterbacks

in Sports by griffn — August 28, 2009 at 12:00 pm | 2 comments

Back by popular demand, it’s the highly anticipated sequel to my earlier running back draft rankings.  Again, keep in mind that these round projections are based on a 10-team league.  Adjust them to fit the size of your league.  Also, you’ll want to try and grab one of the top seven guys.  After that, there’s a lot of question marks.

Last thing to note when drafting your quarterbacks: go for value, if you can.  Drew Brees and Tom Brady will be drafted in the first two rounds of your league.  But you can likely get the same production, if not better, if you wait until round four or five and grab Philip Rivers or Aaron Rodgers.  That frees you up to use your earlier picks on top running backs and wide receivers.  When picking a backup QB later in the draft, go for a guy with high upside like Carson Palmer or Matt Ryan, rather than the surefire mediocrity you’ll get with Eli Manning or Chad Pennington.

Without further ado, let’s get it in.  Stray from these rankings at your own risk.

1. Drew Brees – New Orleans Saints
Over the past three years, Brees has been the most consistent fantasy quarterback, culminating in last year’s insane 5,000-yard, 34 TD season.  What’s scary is that the Saints offense this year is as good as it’s ever been, with Marques Colston and Reggie Smush back healthy.  Brees is the one QB in the league that’s an airtight guaranteed lock for 4,500 yards and 30 TDs.

2. Aaron Rodgers – Green Bay Packers
Remember the 2005 NFL draft, when everyone thought Aaron Rodgers would go in the top five picks, then he fell all the way to the Packers at the 24th pick?  That’s kind of how fantasy drafts around America are going this year, with Rodgers– the second best fantasy QB in the league last year– falling into the fourth and fifth rounds.  That’s crazy, and you and your friends are crazy if you allow that to happen.  Of the 16 games Rodgers played in last year, he scored multiple TDs in 11 of them.  That’s the kind of week in, week out consistency that wins championships.  Even if he goes in the third round in your league, Rodgers is quietly the best value of the draft at any position.

3. Tom Brady – New England Patriots
I hate Tom Brady, and even I can’t hate on Tom Brady.  The man threw 50 TDs in 2007 and followed that up by taking a year off on FMLA to marry a supermodel.  Normally, I’d be wary of any QB coming back from a serious injury, and I’d be telling you to avoid Brady considering that you’ll probably have to spend a first round pick or a high second rounder to get him.  What’s stopping me is Randy Moss.  That connection alone is good for 20 TDs, which means that even if Brady struggles elsewhere, even if the Patriots offensive line gives up anything near the 47 sacks Matt Cassel took last year, you should still get your money’s worth.  That, and Brady is one of a small handful of fantasy players who is capable of singlehandedly winning a league for you.

4. Peyton Manning – Indianapolis Colts
For the past decade, Manning has been the surest thing in fantasy football– a guaranteed 16 games, 4,000 yards, and 25-30 TDs.  It’s hard to put a price on an injury risk approaching absolute zero.  The one red flag with Manning though is that he’ll be without his security blanket Marvin Harrison for the first time in his career.  Also, the Colts offensive line play has declined as of late.  But still, somehow, someway, Manning is going to make it happen– 16 games, 4,000 yards, 25-30 TDs.  If he’s there in the second round, go for it.

5. Philip Rivers – San Diego Chargers
Rivers, like Aaron Rodgers, is another great value who will probably be there in the fourth round.  And likewise, that’s crazy.  In 2008, Rivers threw for 4,000 yards and as many TDs (34) as Drew Brees with 150 fewer pass attempts.  He was far and away the most productive quarterback in the league per throw.  His production will probably drop a little off those totals just because it’ll be near impossible to match that 105.5 QB rating.  Still, in the fourth or fifth round?  Come on.

6. Kurt Warner – Arizona Cardinals
Here’s the good news.  Over the last two years, Warner has averaged 4,000 yards and 29 TDs in the Cardinals offense.  And all those weapons– including Anquan Boldin– are back this year.  The bad news: prior to last year, the last full 16-game season Warner posted was in 2001.  So here’s the thing, if you draft Warner, you’ll want to make sure you have another really solid QB on your bench.  In fact, use your very next pick on a quarterback, ‘cause the injury/flameout risk here is really high.

7. Tony Romo – Dallas Cowboys
In 2007, Tony Romo was a great fantasy quarterback with Terrell Owens.  In 2008, Tony Romo was a good fantasy quarterback with Terrell Owens.  In 2009, Tony Romo is without Terrell Owens.  It’ll be interesting to see whether Romo can produce without the guy who caught half his touchdowns.  Some people are saying Roy Williams will step up and fill the void.  But Williams ain’t Owens.  If Romo is better this year than he was last, it won’t be by much.  Also, he tends to disappear in December, which is when your league’s playoffs start.  At least he’ll get you there though.

8. Matt Schaub – Houston Texans
Matt Schaub has been the Great White Hope for about three years now, ever since he filled in a game or two for Michael Vick back in ’05.  But he hasn’t really done much fantasy-wise and gets hurt a lot.  That said, if you project his stats last year over a full season (he only played in 11 games), he would have thrown for an impressive 4,300 yards and a less impressive 21 TDs, 15 INTs.  Of all the QBs who have yet to put in a monster fantasy season, Schaub is the most likely to make the leap.

9. Carson Palmer – Cincinnati Bengals
Prior to getting hurt last year, Carson Palmer was one of the surest bets in fantasy football.  The Bengals offense isn’t as good as it was in ’06-’07, but the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh should be offset by the addition of Laveranues Coles and the progression of Chris Henry.  For where Palmer is being drafted this year (round nine), he’s a tremendous value, a great backup fantasy QB who will probably be pushing your starter for playing time by midseason.

10. Jay Cutler – Chicago Bears
Last year in Denver, Cutler was the fourth best fantasy QB in the league, with the second most passing attempts.  That won’t happen in Chicago.  He’s going from having decent receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to borderline terrible receivers in Chicago.  His top two targets are Earl Bennett, a third round wide receiver who played special teams last year and didn’t catch a single pass, and Devin Hester, a kick return specialist.  Also, Cutler is going to get a lot fewer passing opportunities, with Matt Forte taking over a bigger chunk of the Bears offense.  Still, Cutler’s a solid starting fantasy QB who should put up respectable numbers.

11. Matt Ryan – Atlanta Falcons
Statistically, it’s hard to ask more of a rookie season than what Matt Ryan delivered last year– high completion percentage, high QB rating, good TD-INT ratio, 3,400 yards, and 16 full games.  He’s got two good young receivers in Michael Jenkins and Roddy White, a strong running game with Michael Turner, and a new weapon in perennial Pro Bowl tight end Tony Gonzalez.  After Schaub, Ryan is the most likely young QB to make the leap into fantasy greatness this year.

12. Donovan McNabb – Philadelphia Eagles
I’m not a big fan of McNabb as a fantasy QB.  Since 2001, he’s had two good fantasy seasons– one of them happened to be last year, the other one was back when he had Terrell Owens.  He also gets hurt quite a bit.  And there’s a big question mark around Brian Westbrook’s health this year, which, if he went down, would effectively end McNabb’s fantasy season.  You’ll have to use a fifth round pick to get McNabb, and that’s not worth it to me when there are guys like Schaub, Palmer, and Cutler who you can get in later rounds.

13. Ben Roethlisberger – Pittsburgh Steelers
All Ben Roethlisberger does is win big games.  That’s in real life.  In fantasy, all Ben Roethlisberger does is post mediocre stats and sit on your bench.  The problem with Big Benjamin is that he doesn’t throw for a lot of yards.  Even when he threw 32 TDs a season ago, he only threw for 3,100 yards.  The other problem with Ben is the same problem Willie Parker has: the Steelers’ offensive line is suspect.  Which not only hurts his numbers, but makes him more prone to injury.  He’s not a great fantasy starter, but he’ll keep your team afloat.

14. Matt Cassel – Kansas City Chiefs
If you’re expecting White Cassel to repeat his miracle season last year (the one where he went from a 7th round backup quarterback in New England to a six-year $63 million starter in Kansas City), don’t get your hopes too high.  He finished last season throwing an impressive 14 TDs in the last eight games, but 7 of those were to Randy Moss.  Moss won’t be in Kansas City and neither will Wes Welker.  Dwayne Bowe will, but he’ll be seeing a lot more double teams with Tony Gonzalez gone.  Kansas City is planning to throw a lot, but I’m not sure how much that will help Cassel if there’s no one to throw to.

15. Matt Hasselbeck – Seattle Seahawks
Hasselbeck has struggled to stay healthy lately, but when he is, he’s one of the better fantasy QBs in the league.  Two years ago, he threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 28 TDs.  His receivers are better this year than they were then, with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and it’s very possible Hasselbeck will return to form.  He’s worth a shot late in the draft.

16. Eli Manning – New York Giants
That gunshot you heard in the club was not Plaxico Burress shooting himself in the leg, it was Plaxico Burress shooting Eli Manning’s 2009 fantasy season in the leg.  In the last five games of the season– without Burress– Manning threw a total of 3 TDs and 3 INTs.  Things won’t be that bad this year, but don’t expect Manning to top his career high of 24 TDs.

17. Kyle Orton – Denver Broncos
Orton wasn’t a very good quarterback in Chicago, but not all of that was his fault.  He’ll have much better receivers in Denver and he’ll throw a lot more, which should mean an improvement on the 3,000 yards and 18 TDs he posted last year.

18. David Garrard – Jacksonville Jaguars
Garrard had his first full 16-game season last year and the results were underwhelming– 15 TDs, 13 INTs.  He’ll have better weapons this year in Troy Williamson, Torry Holt, and a heavier dose of MoJo.  But he still probably won’t be much more than a capable fantasy backup.

19. Chad Pennington – Miami Dolphins
Last year was the best fantasy season of Pennington’s career, and he’s returning with all the same targets.  Problem is, he has never been good in back-to-back seasons.  Also, he’s got Chad Henne and Pat White– the Dolphins’ second round picks in 2008 and 2009 respectively– nipping at his heels.  Either Pennington will repeat his top season from last year or he’ll be on the bench by November.  It really could go either way.

20. Brett Favre – Minnesota Vikings
Brett Favre is a lock to get you 3,500 yards and 20 TDs.  The problem is, he’s also a lock to throw 20 INTs, some of them left-handed.  Yeah, he might give you steady production for a week or two, maybe a month.  But on any given Sunday, he is capable of throwing 4 INTs– especially in big games late in the season– and destroying your fantasy team.  If you enjoy playing Russian Roulette with three bullets, Favre is a great pick.

21. Jake Delhomme – Carolina Panthers
Of all the quarterbacks who started 16 games last year, Jake Delhomme had one of the absolute lowest number of pass attempts.  Part of that was the ascendance of the Panthers’ running game, and part of that was the Panthers’ declining confidence in Delhomme– which he validated by throwing five INTs against Arizona in the playoffs.  Also, his receivers, Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad, are a couple of aging thirtysomethings.  Not much to like here.

22. Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco is a really good young quarterback, who had an impressive rookie year that he’ll likely build on.  A couple things holding him back fantasy-wise though: the Ravens’ run-focused offense and the lack of weapons around him.  Derrick Mason isn’t getting any younger.

23. Trent Edwards – Buffalo Bills
Edwards doesn’t throw for a lot of yards or a lot of touchdowns, but he’s got a couple of good young receivers in Lee Evans and Josh Reed.  Oh, and the Bills added Terrell Owens.  Edwards won’t have the breakout season that Matt Schaub or Matt Ryan will, but it’s hard to see how he doesn’t get close to 20 TDs with those receivers.

24. Jason Campbell – Washington Redskins
As a rule, I would avoid any and everything associated with the Redskins passing game.  Oh, wait, no.  Chris Cooley.  Draft him, avoid his quarterback.

25. JaMarcus Russell – Oakland Raiders
Outside of Russell’s last three games of the season, where he threw 6 TDs and 2 INTs, he didn’t anything last year to put him on this list.  But he is a first round talent, who’s got first-round weapons around him in running back Darren McFadden and wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey.  But don’t get too excited, ‘cause the rest of that receiving corps is really, really not good.

Related posts:

1. 2009 fantasy football rankings: Wide receivers
2. 2009 fantasy football rankings: Tight ends
3. 2009 fantasy football draft rankings: Running backs
4. Why you shouldn’t draft a kicker or defense until the last two rounds
5. Forbes NFL power rankings: Week 5

Tags: draft fantasy football NFL quarterbacks rankings