2009 fantasy football rankings: Wide receivers

in Sports by griffn — September 1, 2009 at 12:00 pm | 2 comments

Wide receiver is a position where elite talent is thin, so you’ll want to grab at least one in the first three rounds of your draft and another by round six.  The second round is typically when a massive run on wide receivers starts, so if you want one of the top guys, you’ll have to do it then– though Moss and Fitzgerald will probably go in the low first round.

As for the second- and third-tier guys, I tend to favor the reliable if not boring production you get from a guy like Donald Driver as opposed to the breakout potential of DeSean Jackson.  There are a lot of guys in that range, guys who will get drafted as low as the tenth round, who will give you 1,000 sure yards and a handful of touchdowns.

Anyway, let’s go.  And in case you missed it, here are my quarterback rankings and running back rankings from last week.

1. Randy Moss – New England Patriots
Two words: Brady’s back.  Which means that out of all the receivers in the league, Moss is the surest bet for another 20 TD season.

2. Larry Fitzgerald – Arizona Cardinals
When they’re both on the field, Boldin is actually the slightly better receiver.  But Fitzgerald is much more likely to give you 16 healthy games.  Keep in mind though that Kurt Warner, at his age, is a pretty high risk to either get injured or flame out.  And if he goes down, he’s taking that whole Cardinals offense with him, ‘cause Leinart is not good.

3. Andre Johnson – Houston Texans
If Matt Schaub makes the progress this season that everyone is expecting him to, and if he stays healthy, Johnson could easily be the top fantasy receiver.  Even if Schaub doesn’t progress, Johnson’s a top five receiver.  And the safest pick on this list.

4. Anquan Boldin – Arizona Cardinals
If Boldin can stay healthy, he’s one of the best values in the draft.  He’s a first-round value who I’ve seen routinely fall into the third.

5. Reggie Wayne – Indianapolis Colts
I was surprised Wayne didn’t put up better numbers last year, with Marvin Harrison fading out of the Colts offense.  Still, you can’t not put Peyton Manning’s #1 option in the top five.

6. Greg Jennings – Green Bay Packers
The top receiver in what could be the top passing offense in the league.  He’s also scored 21 TDs the last two years.  I like Aaron Rodgers a lot this year, and Jennings should be the prime beneficiary of his continued development.

7. Steve Smith – Carolina Panthers
Smith doesn’t catch a lot of touchdowns, his physical style occasionally leads to injuries, and the Panthers are relying more and more on their running game.  The stats probably aren’t gonna match the reputation, but still a solid #1 fantasy receiver.

8. Calvin Johnson – Detroit Lions
Johnson is probably the real deal.  He’s probably going to put up Randy Moss type numbers and highlights this year.  He’s probably going to make me regret ranking him this far down.  But the way Braylon Edwards fell back last year makes me wary of young receivers, especially ones with shaky QB situations.  Detroit still hasn’t named its starter.

9. Marques Colston – New Orleans Saints
Colston caught 19 TDs his first two years in the league, and he’s the number one receiver for a quarterback who could very well throw for 5,000 yards and 40 TDs.  The red flag: he was injured for much of last season and caught only one TD through Week 14.  Still, the potential payoff here, especially for a guy you can grab in the third round, is enormous.

10. Roddy White – Atlanta Falcons
White is going to put up big yards, no doubt.  But with an offense that includes Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez, there’s only going to be so many red zone opportunities to go around.

11. Dwayne Bowe – Kansas City Chiefs
Whether Matt Cassel’s injury is serious or not, Bowe will post solid numbers.  And with Tony Gonzalez out of the picture, he could easily see double-digit TDs this year.

12. Terrell Owens – Buffalo Bills
Owens is one of the best receivers in the game, but I hate his fantasy prospects this year.  Trent Edwards is not a good quarterback.  And T.O.’s toe injury… Toe injuries are never a good sign.  Ask L.T.

13. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Seattle Seahawks
I think Matt Hasselbeck is going to bounce back this year, and a big reason will be the addition of Houshmandzadeh (the progression of second-year TE John Carlson and the return of WR Nate Burleson should help as well).  His first year as a number one receiver will not be a disappointment.

14. Wes Welker – New England Patriots
Two words: Brady’s back.  Welker will get his yards regardless, but the TDs should go back up too.

15. Brandon Marshall – Denver Broncos
Marshall has all the tools to be a #1 fantasy WR, but he’s made it clear– through both words and temper tantrums– that he does not want to play football for the Broncos.  That coupled with a downgrade at the QB position (from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton) is going to hurt Marshall’s numbers this year.

16. Eddie Royal – Denver Broncos
It’s hard not to drool over the 91 catches Royal posted his rookie year.  If he turns into Kyle Orton’s security blanket, especially if Marshall continues pouting, Royal could easily be the best fantasy receiver in Denver.

17. Braylon Edwards – Cleveland Browns
Two years ago, Edwards caught everything thrown his way and posted 16 TDs.  Last year, he dropped everything thrown his way and took a huge step backwards with 3 TDs.  This year, he’ll split the difference.

18. Vincent Jackson – San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers spreads the ball around too much for Jackson to be a fantasy star.  But the top wide receiver in that offense is going to put up good numbers by default.

19. Chad Ochocinco – Cincinnati Bengals
Ochocinco burned me badly last year, to the point where even the epic win of changing his name to Ochocinco wasn’t enough to make up for it.  I drafted him to be my #1 wide receiver, but instead he decided to have exactly one game all year when he posted more than 60 yards.  By the end of the season, he was on the waiver wire.  But before last year, he went five straight seasons with at least 1,250 yards and 7 TDs.  I’m betting that with Carson Palmer back and healthy, Ochocinco will bounce back into form.

20. Anthony Gonzalez – Indianapolis Colts
With Marvin Harrison gone, Gonzalez should have every opportunity to be a standout #2 fantasy option.  He won’t get all of Harrison’s former targets– a lot of those will go Dallas Clark’s way– but he’ll still be a great value in the middle rounds of your draft.

21. Roy Williams – Dallas Cowboys
A lot of people see Williams as a top-tier fantasy receiver.  I’m not one of them.  In his six-year career, he’s put up only one 1,000 yard season.  He’s never scored more than 8 TDs.  And he’s only played in 15 games the last two years.  Even with Romo at QB, even as the top wide receiver in that offense, I’m not that high on Williams.  For as high as you would have to draft him, there’s just too much risk there.

22. Hines Ward – Pittsburgh Steelers
Santonio Holmes is a great young receiver, and he’s higher up on most people’s boards than Ward.  But Holmes didn’t post a single 100-yard game during the regular season last year.  Ward had four.  He also scored more TDs.

23. Kevin Walter – Houston Texans
Walter disappeared the final three games of last season, but before that he was one of the best second-tier fantasy receivers in the league.  He caught as many TDs as Andre Johnson, and if Schaub steps up the way everyone is expecting, 1,000 yards and double-digit TDs is not out of the question.

24. Lee Evans – Buffalo Bills
Evans has always put up decent numbers in Buffalo despite having consistently terrible quarterbacks.  This year is no different, except that now with Terrell Owens on the field, Evans should see fewer double teams and modestly better numbers.

25. Laveranues Coles – Cincinnati Bengals
If Carson Palmer returns to form, Coles could pick up in that Bengals offense where T.J. Houshmandzadeh left off.  A good bet for 1,000 yards and 8 or 9 TDs.

Related posts:

1. 2009 fantasy football rankings: Tight ends
2. 2009 fantasy football draft rankings: Quarterbacks
3. 2009 fantasy football draft rankings: Running backs
4. Why you shouldn’t draft a kicker or defense until the last two rounds
5. Forbes NFL power rankings: Week 7

Tags: draft fantasy football Larry Fitzgerald NFL Randy Moss wide receivers