What’s wrong with Matt Forte?

in Headline Sports by griffn — October 30, 2009 at 11:53 pm | 0 comments

matt_forte_300 A buddy of mine e-mailed me earlier this week to ask if he should drop Matt Forte in his fantasy football league in order to pick up Rashard Mendenhall, and his reasoning was surprisingly sound: Mendenhall and Forte were both drafted in 2008, Mendenhall went in the first round, Forte went in the second, therefore there’s no reason to believe that Mendenhall isn’t actually the better running back. Hard to argue with that.

First things first though, unless you’re playing in a four-team league, there’s no reason why Mendenhall should still be on your waiver wire. He’s the Steelers unquestioned #1 running back, his 5.4 yard per carry average is third among the NFL’s 15 leading rushers. and he’s got 430 all-purpose yards and 4 TDs since taking over four games ago. If you project his rushing numbers out over the first three games that he basically didn’t play in, he’d be third in the league in rushing, 25 yards behind Adrian Peterson. In other words, yeah, pick him up off the wire.

But the notion that you would put Matt Forte– a guy who I had ranked as the #2 running back in fantasy football at the beginning of the season and called “the safest bet of any running back this year”– on the waiver wire is a different story. I realize the situation is desperate for Forte owners. He’s only scored 1 TD in the first seven games. He’s currently 25th in the NFL in rushing yards and 30th in fantasy points, just above Tashard Choice (who has started only one game this year). So how does a guy who put up 1,700 yards and 12 TDs as a rookie take such a huge step backwards in his sophomore year? What’s wrong with Matt Forte?

Brad Evans at Yahoo! wrote a column this week that gave the most comprehensive answer I’ve seen to the Forte question, and it basically comes down to three factors:

1) Chicago’s despicable offensive line. Sans the Detroit game, the trench hogs up front have emitted a rancid odor. The left side of the line anchored by Orlando Pace and Frank Omiyale has routinely been manhandled. The downtrodden tandem has failed to create consistent push. …

2) Decrease in workload. Throughout the offseason and into training camp the Bears’ coaching staff expressed their desire to trim down Forte’s burdensome workload to ensure longevity. Last season, he griped the rock 23.7 times per game. This season that average has decreased to 19.0. Even if his yards per touch elevated up to ‘08’s level (’08: 4.5, ‘09: 4.1), he would still finish nearly 350 total yards shy of last year’s mark.

3) Play-calling. The opposite of what most pundits argued preseason, Cutler has actually been more of a hindrance than help for the running game. Offensive coordinator Ron Turner has leaned on the arm of his prized quarterback, calling 6.5 percent more pass plays than with Kyle Orton a season ago. More worrisome for Forte owners, Cutler leads the league in pass attempts inside the 10 (21), which has led to a downturn in goal-line rushes for the marquee back.

Cutesy sums up Turner’s play-calling in the red zone. Instead of designing plays to utilize his back’s tacky hands, he’s installed riskier fades and corner routes. So far this season, Forte has netted just 7.3 percent of the team’s targets inside the 20, down from 16.9 percent a year ago. Overall, his role in the passing game is nearly identical to last year, but he’s being underused in critical situations. All four of his receiving TDs a year ago were scored inside the 10.

Notice that none of these issues has anything to do with Forte himself. He’s healthy, he’s running relatively well, and his per-touch averages in rushing and receiving are pretty much in line with what he did last year. That’s important, because it’s the difference between someone who has a chance to turn things around and someone like LaDainian Tomlinson or Brian Westbrook who is just physically losing the tools to repeat past performances.

The issues Forte is dealing with is that his offensive line has gotten worse, he’s getting fewer carries, and he’s become a distant second option in the red zone to the Bears shiny new toy (Cutler). Is there a chance that any of these factors could turn around? Yes. Orlando Pace isn’t getting any younger, so Forte will probably have to continue working around that offensive line. But the Bears coaching staff may very well respond to their two-game losing streak by giving Forte more carries, and they may respond to their 20th ranked scoring offense by getting Forte more involved in the red zone. The Bears’ overreliance on Jay Cutler and those CFL-caliber wide receivers isn’t working, so a midseason change back to last season’s game plan isn’t at all out of the question.

Keep in mind that the Bears schedule is on the tough side from here on out, but there’s no reason why Forte can’t return to last season’s form or very near to it, starting this Sunday against Cleveland’s 31st ranked rush defense. And last season’s form had him equal in fantasy points to Adrian Peterson. Also keep in mind that DeAngelo Williams had 4 TDs at this point last year, then beasted for 16 more in the last half of the season. Dramatic midseason turnarounds do happen in the NFL. In other words, no, don’t drop Matt Forte.

Tags: Chicago Bears fantasy football Matt Forte Pittsburgh Steelers Rashard Mendenhall